Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future using data analysis.

Superforecasters are people who make consistently and significantly better predictions than the rest of the population.
Superforecasters possess the following characteristics:
Temperament: Cautious, Humble, Non-Determinist.
Cognition: Open-Minded, Intelligent, Curious, Reflective, Numerate.
Analytical: Pragmatic, Dragonfly-Eyed, Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters, Intuitive Psychologist.
Work Ethic: Growth Mindset, Resilience.

Book Summary by Chapter
Focus your time and effort on forecasts that are rewarding.
Unpack problems: expose assumptions, catch mistakes, and correct biases.
Consider the broader category before inspecting the case details.
Revise your beliefs often, in small increments, to reduce the risks of under and over reacting to the new information.
Find merit in opposing perspectives.
Reject the fantasy of certainty and learn to think in terms of uncertainty.
Avoid boasting or waffling. Aim to be humble and prudently decisive.
Learn from experience in success and failure.
Use precise questioning to bring out the best in others. And others bring out the best in you.
Try, fail, analyse, adjust. Try again.
Question everything. Including this list.

This is an interesting read on forecasting and how predictions are made. It examines a number of real world examples, outlining what went right, what went wrong, and how the process can be improved.

There are a number of ways that one can improve the quality of their forecasts, ranging from knowing which questions to avoid, which data to try and focus on, and how to go back and re-evaluate your predictions.

This book falls right in line with "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, so fans of that book would find this one interesting as well. As least that's what I predict!

Even better on the re-read

Great book. The only two criticism I would have is that there is a little too much name dropping and some of the endnotes could really have been footnotes at the bottom of the page or just included in the main text. (then again my pet peeve is having references and further comments together as endnotes. It is really annoying or is that just me?)

Very interesting read! I really liked the writing style, the enthusiasm, and the constant back and forth on ideas.

Very interesting book from the author who discovered that professional forecasters and market analysts performed no better than chimpanzees playing darts.

The basic premise is that most people could do better with some basic training, good techniques and proper feedback. But it turns out the some people are particularly adept at this.

The recommend techniques are to base predictions on data and logic, and try to eliminate personal bias. Keep track of records so that you know how accurate you (and others) are. Think in terms of probabilities and recognize that everything is uncertain. Unpack a question into its component parts, distinguishing between what is known and unknown, and scrutinizing your assumptions.

While it is not entirely fair to compare and contrast the success of the "Superforecasters" with the dismal failure of their chimp like, chance-led, professional analysts (principally, but not solely, due to the time scales of the measured forecasting tasks) there is still definitely something that feels real here.

It feels sufficiently real that I am even considering signing up to the Good Judgement Project to check it out personally.

It also helps that it is very well written and for the most part easy to read, follow and understand. Highly recommended.

An excellent book that is succinctly summarized in the way of thinking of John Maynard Keynes (explored in the later chapters):

Try, fail, analyze, and adjust. And try again

Recommended!

"Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a fascinating and thought-provoking book that delves into the world of forecasting and prediction. The book is based on years of research and experimentation, and it presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the science and art of forecasting. The authors argue that forecasting is not only possible but can also be done with a high degree of accuracy if one follows certain principles and methods.
 
The book is highly applicable to the field of cyber threat intelligence, as accurate forecasting is crucial in identifying and mitigating potential cyber threats. The authors present a framework for making predictions that can be adapted and applied to the cyber threat intelligence domain. Additionally, the book offers insights into how to overcome cognitive biases and other obstacles to accurate forecasting.

Furthermore, the book also challenges some of the ideas presented in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan Theory," which argues that rare and unpredictable events have a disproportionate impact on the world. Superforecasting argues that many events that are considered "black swans" can be predicted with the right tools and methods.

Overall, "Superforecasting" is an important and insightful book for anyone interested in the fields of forecasting and prediction, such as cyber threat intelligence and geopolitical analysis. It provides a detailed and practical guide to forecasting while also challenging some of the popular assumptions about the nature of prediction.

A very instructive account of how to attune one's psychology to accurately forecasting the future. The limitations of long-term prediction were insightfully narrated and the techniques of short-term forecasting were deliberatively described. I learned a lot.

This book along with the website that has forecasting available has been a gamechanger for me. It has forced me to think in a different way but also to put that into practice. I thoroughly enjoyed the book and think that everyone should read and implement. I look forward to the day that our newcasters have scores for their predictions as a part of the broadcast.