Very interesting book from the author who discovered that professional forecasters and market analysts performed no better than chimpanzees playing darts.

The basic premise is that most people could do better with some basic training, good techniques and proper feedback. But it turns out the some people are particularly adept at this.

The recommend techniques are to base predictions on data and logic, and try to eliminate personal bias. Keep track of records so that you know how accurate you (and others) are. Think in terms of probabilities and recognize that everything is uncertain. Unpack a question into its component parts, distinguishing between what is known and unknown, and scrutinizing your assumptions.

While it is not entirely fair to compare and contrast the success of the "Superforecasters" with the dismal failure of their chimp like, chance-led, professional analysts (principally, but not solely, due to the time scales of the measured forecasting tasks) there is still definitely something that feels real here.

It feels sufficiently real that I am even considering signing up to the Good Judgement Project to check it out personally.

It also helps that it is very well written and for the most part easy to read, follow and understand. Highly recommended.