(read as e-book)

I really enjoyed this book. Does a good job of explaining how to make predictions in an uncertain world. Lays out qualities and practices that are needed. Some key takeways:
- Forecasts need to be precise, have probabilities attached to them
- This allows them to be evaluated and improved
- Should make bayesian style updates to forecasts as new information becomes available
- Should break down large problems into more manageable problems/questions (fermi estimation)
- Better to have fine tuned probabilities
- Be in perpetual beta, always looking to improve

While it is clear that better forecasts can be very useful in a lot of different environments, it isn't clear how this kind of thinking can be applied to everyday life. I can see how it can come up, but cultivating these skills might not be worth it for the majority of people.