Delightful little polemic, refreshingly free of tedious moralizing. If anything the author seems so genuinely humble and grateful for the luck he's experienced in his own life that he somewhat undercuts his own argument -- because many of his confessed strokes of luck would be considered unlucky by a less mature mind! For instance, it turns out that he was given up for adoption at birth by a member of a wealthy family... and he ends up concluding that this was very lucky for him because he considers himself naturally lazy and thinks a trust fund would have sapped him of the work ethic he needed to succeed in life. Much later he credits his survival after a medical emergency to the happenstance of close ambulance location -- but most people would be forgiven for not thinking of TOTAL HEART FAILURE as any kind of good luck! He even slyly manages to turn a savage cable TV interview into an argument for his own position.

An inordinate amount of the book is spent trying to convince skeptical readers that success tracks more closely with luck than skill/hard work... or rather probably something more like, within a given tier of skill/hard work the outcomes correlate more strongly to luck than to additional skill or work. I had no idea that this view was so controversial on the political right until I read a book recently about the Koch brothers, who revere the myth of the lone entrepreneur despite the fact that they inherited vast fortunes. I personally do not find the critical importance of luck controversial, partly because I decided to read this book only after already being convinced by the 2018 Pluchino et al paper on "Talent vs Luck" which tackles the question more directly (via computer simulation) than Frank does. I believe this author is one of the originators of the theory of "winner take all markets" so he is no rookie at this topic.

A feature of the book that I specifically enjoyed was the author's attempt to speak directly to the people most affected by the luck/talent argument, the affluent (basically defined as those who have plenty for needs but still have to prioritize for wants). The practical correlate of luck is to encourage the affluent to pay more tax to fund social equalizers, especially public education. Frank's cute twist is to point out in various ways that a lot of what the upper classes want money for is conspicuous or comparative consumption... so if ALL OF US in a certain income tier took the same tax haircut for wants, we would still be good because we'd only be competing with each other. Makes perfect sense to me and I hope the idea of consumption tax gets some traction.

I thought I was getting a writing craft book and this is an economics / business book, but I still enjoyed it.

3.5 stars. I work at a business school, which is pretty much ground zero for extremely privileged people arguing that their success is due completely to their own hard work and not at all to luck. If anything, working there has shown me how much success is influenced by factors that have nothing to do with meritocracy, so I was very intrigued to read this book.

The core concepts were solid, but the short length (~180 pages total, including appendixes and notes) kept the book from going as in-depth as I want to. I guess that Frank wanted to keep it short so it would appeal to more readers, but I felt like the book only skimmed the surface of many of the concepts, and I found myself wanting more, especially from such an experienced academic. His humbleness and frank admittance of the role that luck has played in his own life was refreshing. This book can certainly serve as interesting fodder for discussion, but is by no means a comprehensive investigation.

Brief and valuable.

The author makes some key claims:
- Luck plays a much bigger part in success than we admit. We focus instead on the contributions of skill and effort. Skill and effort are essential, but by focusing too much on them we promote the ideas that success is deserved and winning reflects personal values. This then blinds us to the value of helping each other. (Caveat: we also need to be careful not to over-focus on luck and reduce the impetus for people to work hard and develop skills.)
- As competition gets harder - that is, as more contestants show up with high levels of skill and effort - the contribution of luck gets proportionately greater.
- Winner-takes-all competitions give disproportionate rewards to the winners. A little bit of luck early on can create cascading advantages as life goes on.
- Our notions of what it means to be "winning" are relative and situational. This in turn can lead to massive economic waste. When the average wedding in New York City costs $30,000 you need to spend $40,000 for your wedding to be special, even though both sums are way beyond any need.
- Relative expectations can be reset if everybody is in on the reset. If everybody in NYC decided they should spend half of what they spend today on weddings, nobody would be any less happy, and all that money could be redirected to more globally valuable goals.
- A progressive national consumption tax has the potential to drive a country-wide reset on consumption patterns, thereby promoting savings over consumption, and reducing the amount of waste in the economy.

Frank has been shilling for progressive consumption taxation for years, so I suspect he would frame the entire book as yet another argument for his pet project. That's fine, even if you don't buy his proposal. The rest of the book is informative, entertaining and thought-provoking.

The point is that very few people become successful without a little luck on their side, an idea that I agree with. However, I'd read about the failings of meritocracy before, so this didn't feel particularly new. It did have some interesting examples of people who were hardworking and smart and became hugely successful, but with a bit of luck on their side.

2.5 starts. I wish this book had focused on what the core subject seems from the title, success and luck. Frank spends almost equal time on that topic and then on how to resolve the issues the come out of people's inability to incorporate luck into their success narrative (e.g. chronic underinvestment in infrastructure). While identifying the problems that faulty thinking around success leads to, and providing a solution adds value to the book, making it almost half of the book really changes the nature of what this book is about, making it more about the solution (i.e. progressive consumption taxes) since the success and luck thinking issue is mostly the build up to the solution, not the thing in itself.

This book surprised me. I knew I would agree with the basic premise (that every financial success is based in part on good luck, and that even highly talented, dedicated, and hard-working people get ahead of other talented, dedicated hard workers in part because they are lucky). I looked forward to reading some pithy examples, and Frank did not disappoint:

* Without the right breaks, which defied the odds, neither actor Al Pacino nor actor Bryan Cranston would have become stars. (Can you imagine Matthew Broderick in Breaking Bad? It nearly happened.)

* The success of many books, movies, plays, and songs depends on getting a few good reviews at the start: in other words, on the luck of timing.

* Children who are older than their teammates are more likely to become stars in their sport. When you were born is a matter of chance, but it greatly affects your sports success.

The book also made some things clear to me that I should have known, but didn't, until Frank stated them in simple language. For instance: that while something might be highly improbable to happen to me, if you ask about all the people it could happen to, it's very likely it will happen to someone just by the luck of the draw. But we exhibit "hindsight bias." We look back and come up with explanations that make random events seem like the inevitable result of our own good decisions.

Also, Frank puts this important insight into words: "being born into a good environment is one of the luckiest things that can happen to anyone" (90). Our genetic endowment, our parents and the influence they have upon us, and even the mere fact of living in a time and place where clean water is available and plentiful--we can't take personal credit for any of these, and yet without them, what would become of us? Who would we be?

What really surprised me, however, was that by the end of this brief book, Frank turns these observations into a social philosophy. A good environment is something we can arrange for, not individually, but through collective action. Schools, air quality, public health...all these and more are things that will make us luckier, and more successful--not relative to one another, but absolutely. And they are things we cannot arrange for on our own.

Frank's favorite example is that a Porsche 911, costing $150,000, is a better car than most of us will ever buy. It pales in comparison to the Ferrari F12, however, and that costs $333,000,. So, if you're a wealthy car enthusiast, you might want to pay less in taxes so you can buy a Ferrari. Yet the Ferrari on a road full of potholes cannot possibly perform as well as the Porsche on a smooth paved road. You'd be better off if you and everyone else paid more taxes and fixed the roads.

From this, Frank goes into an argument I can't follow about how a progressive consumption tax would be more efficient and less painful than a progressive income tax, and it would provide people with more actual happiness even if they had less stuff, or less ostentatious stuff. If you like economic reasoning, this is the part of the book for you. But it's a high recommendation to say that in 150 pages of text (plus a couple of appendices), this book gives food for thought to the popular culture fan and the professional economist, both!

Full disclosure: Frank may have biased me in his favor. He explains that recognizing the role luck plays in your own success makes you a more likeable person. Well, he did just that. In the beginning of the book, he tells about the times he almost died, and about the circumstances that made him (almost against his will) a renowned economist instead of a mediocre minor league baseball player. I'm predisposed to like him and his arguments because of that. So, read the book and judge for yourself.

Although I don't have an economics/business background and there were moments where a few concepts went over my head, you can tell Robert tries to make this digestible for people like myself.

What I really liked about this book is how it tied structural issues and privilege into the reason why some people succeed and others don't. As well as how luck doesn't get emphasized enough in most cases, while the individuals skills get overemphasized. Although I read this book a year ago his analogy of running with the wind vs. running into the wind really captures this concept. I find it's so necessary for books to point these concepts out because it speaks for the need of equity to allow all individuals to succeed and to even have a chance FOR opportunities.

Interesting analysis and I agree with most of the points, but I am not a fan of the fact that around half the book is composed of personal stories and anecdotes. The other half which is actual economic and statistical analysis is solid. Would have been nice if he had spent more time on the normative aspect of his results, i.e., more policy proposals, instead of the only one he discusses at length, a progressive consumption tax.